Every month brings a fresh wave of headlines, hot takes, and “can’t-miss” stock tips. This month’s Tall Oaks market update takes a different approach. Instead of chasing the next big trade, Branden DuCharme steps back to read the charts across the whole market — bonds, gold, oil, the dollar, and international stocks — and asks a simpler question: what is the market actually trying to tell us right now?
Here’s the through-line from this month’s episode.
Interest rates: don’t be surprised by higher
The ten-year Treasury has been grinding higher through the summer, and it’s now pressing against overhead resistance around the 4.7–4.8% range. Momentum is a tailwind, and while a decisive breakout isn’t guaranteed, the message is consistent with what Branden has been saying for a while: don’t be surprised by higher rates.
The practical takeaway is a mindset shift. If you need to borrow money and rates come down, take advantage of it — but don’t sit on the sidelines endlessly waiting for a lower number that may not arrive. The cost of money matters, and right now it’s trending up, not down.
Mortgages: room to drift toward 7%
Mortgage rates haven’t blown out alongside the ten-year, which is reassuring — there’s no sign of a jump to 8.5% on the horizon. But with rates currently in the mid-to-high 6% range, Branden wouldn’t be shocked to see them push toward 7%, or even teeter just over, by the end of the year. If you need to buy a house, his advice is to act rather than time the market perfectly.
Credit spreads: the market’s confidence signal
Credit spreads — the extra interest a lower-credit borrower pays versus a high-credit one — are one of the most useful “under the hood” indicators. Right now they’re historically tight, near levels not seen since 2007. Spreads widened early in the month and then compressed back into a strong close.
What does that mean? The bond market isn’t acting scared. Tight spreads suggest investors aren’t fleeing riskier bonds — if anything, there’s strong demand for the extra yield, partly because investors want income that helps offset inflation without holding Treasuries directly. The flip side: if you’re heavily allocated to high-yield credit, the easy tailwind is largely behind you, so be thoughtful about over-allocating from here.
Gold: the breakout — and the long-term case
Gold has been a recurring theme on the show, and this month it’s breaking out. After a painful, drawn-out consolidation, it found support, tested it repeatedly, and is now moving with real momentum.
The more interesting story is gold relative to the S&P 500. Because the two aren’t tightly correlated, gold can act as a diversifier. Branden’s read as a technician is that gold looks poised to outperform the S&P 500 over the next several years. Importantly, “outperform” doesn’t necessarily mean gold soars — it could simply mean gold holds up better if stocks stumble.
To illustrate just how far that relative trend could run, Branden walks through the long-term ratio between gold and the S&P 500: if the index climbs toward 10,000 in the coming years and that historical ratio reasserts itself, the implied math points to a gold price well into five figures. It’s a thought exercise more than a forecast — as Branden puts it, don’t be surprised if it happens, or more honestly, if it does.
Oil and energy: higher for longer
Oil’s monthly chart shows a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern — historically a constructive setup — with strong resistance near $108–$109 a barrel and solid support around $56. Given the geopolitical backdrop, Branden has a hard time seeing a fresh low below $56, which leaves the market either range-bound or setting up for an eventual push higher.
Zooming into the energy services space, the picture is a coiling, high-energy pattern that tends to resolve with a sharp move. The direction is the hard part, but the broader story the charts tell is the same: energy prices look likely to stay elevated, and possibly climb. Don’t be caught off sides if you’re paying more at the pump.
The dollar and international stocks
The US dollar is trading in the middle of its long-term bands (roughly 85 on the low end, 105 on the high end), which points to a range-bound near term. But the dollar is worth watching closely, because a meaningful move lower would ripple through portfolios — likely boosting gold and opening the door to international allocations.
On that note, international stocks — long-time underperformers versus the S&P 500 — may be turning. After bottoming late in 2024, the ratio has been reversing, with a subtle inverse head-and-shoulders setup suggesting international could start to outperform. The caveat: international investing carries currency risk. When you buy foreign stocks, you’re effectively making a bet against the dollar, and a depreciating local currency can erase gains even when the underlying business does fine. Diversification benefits are real, but so is the added risk.
The bottom line
The headline environment looks bearish on the surface, but Branden’s message is measured: there’s still money to be made, discomfort is a feature of investing rather than a bug, and long-term investors should generally stay allocated rather than get scared out. US equity valuations are a conversation of their own — but they aren’t the only opportunity set. Across bonds, gold, energy, and international markets, there are places to be. The job is understanding what the market is signaling and positioning accordingly.