Most people watch the stock market. This month, the bond market did a lot of the talking. In the September Market Update on the Tall Oaks Podcast, Branden walks through five charts: the 10-year Treasury yield (two views), the U.S. dollar, the equal-weight S&P 500, and the Magnificent 7. He recorded it on Tuesday, September 29, a couple of days before month-end. Candlestick charts are best read after a period closes, so treat these reads as still developing.
Why rising interest rates matter
When interest rates go up, bond prices come down, which puts pressure on the bonds inside many portfolios.
Rising rates also compete for investors’ capital. In Branden’s example, if a company is projected to return 7% on your money and a 10-year Treasury pays 5.5% with no company risk attached, that Treasury starts to look attractive. For the stock to offer a comparable return, its price has to come down. That is one way rising rates become a headwind for stocks.
The 10-year Treasury also sets the tone for mortgage rates, since it is largely how they are priced.
Chart 1: The 10-year Treasury yield breaks out
The weekly chart tells a clear story. Yields peaked in 2023, bottomed in the fall of 2024 when the Fed started cutting, climbed after the election, and then built a base. In 2026 they began moving higher and have done so fairly steadily.
The black line on the chart marks the top of that base, near 5%. Yields pushed through it on very large candles, and the 10-year was trading near 5.25% on the day of the recording. (The chart reads 52.55 because that index is quoted at ten times the yield.) Branden called it a breakout with authority. Think of a golfer who barely taps a putt into the cup versus one who sends it from eight feet and watches it drop.
Moves like this rarely reverse right away, but they also cannot run forever without stressing something. His read: watch for a pullback to retest the 5% breakout level over the coming days or weeks.
Chart 2: Yields back to the 1970s
The monthly chart shows yields peaking in 1981 and then falling for decades. The black line Branden drew near 5% acted as support in the 1990s, flipped to resistance after yields broke below it, and stopped yields again during the 2006 to 2007 hiking cycle. After that came the quantitative easing years, the low near 2016, and the sharp drop during Covid, which many in the bond world have called a bond bubble.
Today yields are testing that same zone. Branden expects a possible pullback to the 5% area to digest the move, with yields ultimately working higher and the area above roughly 5.25% as the next resistance. Those are his expectations, not certainties.
Chart 3: A stronger dollar
Higher yields on U.S. Treasuries make dollar-denominated bonds more attractive to global investors. Buying them means selling local currency to buy dollars, which tends to strengthen the dollar.
A stronger dollar can help soften inflation, as it did in the early 2000s and the 2010s. It can also be a headwind for gold, international investments and, depending on the country, emerging markets. Branden pointed out that some markets, such as the AI trade in South Korea and Taiwan, have their own dynamics.
On the chart, the dollar sits between bands near 90 and 105. A channel around 100 had acted as support, broke down in 2025, turned into resistance, and the dollar now appears to be pushing above it. Branden sees room for more momentum toward the 105 to 106 area, a zone where he notes moves have tended not to last long. If you want more on this theme, listen to our recent episode on the Dollar Milkshake Theory with Brent Johnson: https://youtu.be/P-0uROkKO_E.
Chart 4: The equal-weight S&P 500 and market breadth
The equal-weight S&P 500 gives every one of the 500 companies the same weight, so it shows how the average stock is doing. It peaked in mid-August and has sold off since. Branden’s concern is that there is no obvious support nearby.
He is watching a gap from late May near the old breakout level. Markets tend to fill gaps, though not always, so a move back to that area would not surprise him. Broad participation in a recovery, or breadth, would need to come back before most stocks can really turn around.
Chart 5: The Magnificent 7
Most portfolios hold market-cap-weighted funds, which are dominated by the biggest names. The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) covers Meta (Facebook), Nvidia, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla. Branden notes 2026 has not been stellar and has been volatile for these stocks.
But they broke out of their base and, on the day of the recording, retested that level and bounced. That matters because if most stocks go through a rough correction while big tech holds up and regains leadership, it helps balance a portfolio. He added that semiconductors regaining leadership alongside the Mag 7 would be a catalyst for the broader market.
What to watch next
Interest rates are changing quickly, and the dollar is moving, and moves like these tend to stress things. For context, the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, and its September projections show 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more increase by year-end.
Branden’s bias is for rates to stay higher for longer, though he would not be surprised by some relief if yields pull back to retest breakout levels. His closing advice: stay the course with your financial plan, recalibrate where it makes sense, and try not to be caught off guard by big macro moves. They affect markets and people’s lives, and they can also create opportunities.
Key takeaways
Rising rates pressure bonds, can pressure stocks, and affect mortgage rates.
The 10-year yield broke above a multi-year base near 5%; Branden is watching for a retest of that level.
A stronger dollar can be a headwind for gold, international and emerging market investments.
Market breadth is weak: the equal-weight S&P 500 has sold off since mid-August.
The Magnificent 7 retesting its breakout is something to watch for leadership.
Talk with DuCharme Wealth Management
If you want to talk through how rising rates and a stronger dollar may affect your own plan, contact DuCharme Wealth Management https://ducharmewealth.com/contact-us/.
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