Interest rates, the broken 60/40 portfolio, gold, and the energy trades hiding outside big tech — here’s where my attention is this month.
Every month on the podcast, I try to do one thing: cut through the noise.
There’s no shortage of market commentary out there. Turn on CNBC and you’ll hear about whatever stock moved 3% yesterday, whatever headline is driving the tape this hour. A lot of that is noise. What I want to do in these market updates is step back and look at the bigger, slower-moving forces underneath it all — the trends that actually shape a portfolio over years, not hours. So you won’t hear me pick a single stock in this one. You’ll hear me talk about signal.
Here’s where my attention is right now.
Interest rates aren’t done going up
We started with the two-year Treasury, because it tends to lead the Fed. When that yield climbs, it’s telling you the market expects rates to stay higher — and it’s dragging along everything from mortgages to credit cards to auto loans. Last month I called for a reversion, a bet that the move had gone too far, too fast. It didn’t work out. Rates held, and if anything they’ve pushed higher. Sometimes the honest read is the uncomfortable one.
The 60/40 portfolio has a problem
For a long time, bonds did exactly what they were supposed to: when stocks got rocky, long-duration Treasuries held the line and smoothed the ride. That’s the whole logic of a 60/40 portfolio. But that relationship broke down in a real way — you can trace the change of trend back to around the Silicon Valley Bank episode — and long bonds have kept underperforming cash. I don’t view long Treasuries as a set-and-forget holding anymore so much as a way to trade interest rates. And with inflation running above target for 63 straight months now, this isn’t a two-week story. It’s secular.
Is international finally turning?
Since 2008, international stocks have basically been dead weight relative to the S&P 500. But in 2025 that ratio bottomed and appears to have reversed. Looking at the chart, I think this is a genuine change of trend, not just a short-term pop — resistance has flipped to support, and the setup is constructive. A big part of the story is the dollar. A strong dollar has been a headwind for international investing since 2009, and the current administration has been vocal about wanting a weaker one. (I’m working on bringing a guest onto the show who really understands the dollar mechanic — stay tuned.) Just remember: international adds currency risk and geopolitical risk on top of normal volatility. Size it accordingly.
The gold chart behind “$49,000”
This is the one that gets attention. I look at the ratio of gold to the S&P 500 going all the way back to the 1960s. In the inflationary 1970s, that ratio went nearly vertical — gold massively outran stocks. At its peak, the ratio hit about seven. Run that math against today’s S&P and you’d get a gold price around $49,000 an ounce.
Now — I am not calling for $49,000 gold. The world would have to get a lot crazier before we’re anywhere near that. But the point of the chart isn’t the number. It’s the setup: gold broke out of a long base and is now retesting it, and gold’s low correlation to stocks makes it a genuinely useful diversifier regardless of where the price lands. As I said on the show, it might mean gold goes up, or that stocks come down, or that I’m completely wrong. But the statistical case, supported by classic charting, is significant.
Silver, platinum and palladium
If gold’s working, it’s worth looking at the higher-beta metals. Silver famously topped just over $50 back in the Hunt brothers era and retested that level in 2011. It’s built a long base since, ran hard in January, and pulled back. I’m cautiously optimistic we’re still in a metals bull market — but don’t be shocked if silver trades into the high $40s for a stretch first. Markets are very good at fooling as many people as possible, and a level this well-known rarely gives everyone the clean retest they’re waiting for. Platinum and palladium are their own setups worth watching if metals get going.
Energy: two stories, not one
Everyone talks about oil and the Strait of Hormuz — straits close, price spikes; a deal gets done, price gets smashed. That’s largely binary and, frankly, somewhat artificial. What interests me more is what isn’t trading in lockstep: the equities. Refining capacity is the real bottleneck. If infrastructure gets damaged, you can’t just turn it back on — those facilities take years to build. And the whole oil services and exploration-and-production segment has been chronically under-invested for years. The charts are starting to break out, and I’m watching for a much larger recovery as capital is almost forced back into the sector. You can route barrels through the strait or not, but you still have to refine the oil.
The bottom line: let your plan size the trade
Here’s the through-line of all of it: the S&P 500 is expensively valued, and there’s a lot going on in the world beyond big US tech. The trades outside the index — metals, energy, international — carry the potential for higher returns. They also carry more volatility, and volatility cuts both ways: more upside, more surprise down days, more stretches where you look different from the market.
So before you go loading up your portfolio with the best-looking chart, do the boring, important thing: revisit your financial plan and let that guide your position sizing. That’s what tips the odds in your favor over time — not chasing, and not going all-in on any single idea.
If you’d like help building a plan that tells you how much of any of this belongs in your portfolio, reach out to our team — that’s exactly the conversation we’re here for.
Questions, comments, concerns — even hate mail — Branden takes it all. Reach out on X or drop a comment. And if you’d rather listen, the full July market update is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 60/40 portfolio still a good strategy in 2025? The traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio relies on bonds rising when stocks fall. That relationship broke down around early 2023, and long-duration Treasuries have since underperformed cash. Long bonds may now be better viewed as a way to trade interest rates than as a permanent buy-and-hold ballast — though the right mix always depends on your individual plan.
Could gold really reach $49,000 an ounce? That figure comes from applying the peak 1970s gold-to-S&P 500 ratio to today’s index level. It’s a thought experiment about how far the ratio could move in an extreme scenario, not a price forecast. The more useful takeaway is gold’s role as a low-correlation diversifier.
What does “outside big tech” mean for investors? With the S&P 500 richly valued and concentrated in a handful of large technology names, several of the more compelling setups — precious metals, energy, and international stocks — sit outside the index’s biggest holdings. These can offer higher return potential but come with greater volatility.
This FAQ is general information, not personalized investment advice.